Are Sale Prices Really Lower? How to Check Before You Buy

A viral clip doing the rounds this week shows a young man staring at a price tag. He writes $299 on a whiteboard: too expensive. Then he writes $600 above it, crosses it out, and suddenly $299 looks like a steal. The host of The Minimalists podcast, where the clip went viral, delivers the verdict: "Don't call it sale price. Call it fool price." His punchline: "It's 100% off if you don't buy it."

With Black Friday landing on 27 November and early deal flyers already dropping, the joke is worth real money. US households plan to spend an average of $1,654 this holiday season, up 4% on last year, according to Deloitte's 2026 Holiday Retail Survey. So the question behind the laugh deserves an answer: are those crossed-out prices real, or is the "saving" printed on the tag?

What the price trackers actually found

Consumer groups and tracking firms have answered this by doing the one thing shoppers rarely do: writing the price down and watching it.

The UK consumer group Which? tracked 208 Black Friday deals at eight major retailers for six months before and after Black Friday 2022. Only five of them — 2% — were cheapest on the day itself, and 86% were the same price or cheaper at other times of year. Second-generation Apple AirPods sold for £119 on Black Friday at Argos and Currys, but had cost £99 to £109 between May and September.

A 2025 US study by price-tracking firm Visualping, reported by ConsumerAffairs this week, monitored more than 2,600 products from 1 October to Cyber Monday. Roughly one-third of Black Friday and Cyber Monday "deals" had been cheaper earlier in the season, averaging 37% above the lowest price seen in the window. A MacBook Air advertised at $1,439.99 around Black Friday had sold for $1,337.46 earlier in November — a $100 "discount" built on a price that wasn't real. And when Adobe Analytics reports peak discounts of 30.9% on electronics, that figure is measured off the listed price, not the year's lowest price — the percentage is quoted against a reference number the retailer chooses.

Category	Share of "deals" that were cheaper earlier
Luggage	61%
Microwaves	50%
Video game consoles	14%
Backpacks	4%

The risk isn't evenly spread — luggage and microwave "deals" were mostly fiction, while backpack prices were largely honest. Source: Visualping 2025 tracking via ConsumerAffairs.

Why your brain loves the "was" price

The trick works through anchoring: the first number you see sets the scale, and everything after is judged against it. $299 feels expensive until $600 appears above it; then $299 feels like winning. Retailers didn't invent this bias, but sale signage is engineered around it.

The most expensive lesson in retail history proves how deep the habit runs. In February 2012, JCPenney's new CEO Ron Johnson — the man who built the Apple Store — launched "Fair and Square" pricing: no coupons, no more 590 annual promotional events, just honest everyday low prices. Shoppers hated it. Within a year, sales collapsed from $17.3 billion to $12.99 billion, the company lost $985 million, and Johnson was fired in April 2013, about seventeen months into the job. Prices were genuinely lower — and customers walked away from the store that refused to play the discount game.

The discount is loud; the real price is quiet. Every crossed-out number on a sale tag is trying to be the loud one.

What the law says about "was" prices

A fake reference price isn't just annoying — regulators have rules for it.

In the US, the FTC's Guides Against Deceptive Pricing say a "was" price must be a genuine price the product was openly offered at for "a reasonably substantial period of time." A price raised briefly just to mark down doesn't count, and a perpetual "sale" is treated as the regular price by another name. Enforcement is real: Boohoo agreed to a $197 million settlement in 2023 over allegedly inflated reference prices. California and New Jersey add state-level look-back rules on advertised former prices. Suspected fakes can be reported at ReportFraud.ftc.gov.

In the EU, the Omnibus Directive's Article 6a requires every announced reduction to show the prior price — defined as the lowest price charged in at least the 30 days before the reduction. In force since May 2022, it was tightened by the Court of Justice's September 2024 Aldi Süd ruling: percentage discounts must be calculated from that 30-day low. In the Commission's most recent Black Friday sweep, 30% of 314 online traders checked still got it wrong.

In the UK, the post-Brexit position is weaker — Britain hasn't adopted the Omnibus rule, though Which? campaigns for it, and misleading pricing remains covered by consumer protection law. Either way, the law sets a floor, not a ceiling: a "was" price can be perfectly legal and still be a bad deal if three competitors beat it today.

The 5-minute price floor test

Black Friday is three weeks away — enough time to build a baseline no retailer can fake:

1. Pull the price history. On Amazon, CamelCamelCamel or Keepa show months of data free. Elsewhere, Google Shopping's price history covers many products. Set 60–90 days. The test: the deal price should beat or match the lowest recent price, not just the "was" price.
2. Cover the "was" price. The JCPenney lesson in one move: ignore the crossed-out number and ask whether you'd buy at the sale price on an ordinary Tuesday. If the answer is no, the "discount" is the only thing you're buying.
3. Check two other retailers. A genuine discount usually appears in more than one store. A "deal" at exactly one retailer is a pricing decision, not a market event.
4. Know the risky categories. Recent tracking says luggage and microwaves deserve extra scepticism; consoles and backpacks have been fair. Spend your five minutes where the data says it matters.
5. Read the reference. "Was" claims the store charged it; "compare at" usually means MSRP. EU shoppers get a free tool: the "lowest price in the last 30 days" line is legally required on every discount.

Frequently asked questions

Is a fake "was" price actually illegal?

It can be. In the US, the FTC's deception standard treats a fictitious former price as misleading, and state laws add teeth — California and New Jersey both impose look-back requirements on advertised former prices. In the EU, the Omnibus Directive makes the 30-day lowest price the only legal reference. The catch is enforcement happens case by case, so most fake discounts die of shopper indifference rather than prosecution.

If Black Friday isn't the cheapest day, when is?

Often later — or earlier. Which? found 35% of tracked products became cheaper after the Black Friday sales period ended. TVs tend to bottom out in late November, laptops often dip again on Cyber Monday (30 November this year), and plenty of "doorbusters" return at the same price in January clearances. Waiting is rarely punished.

Do price trackers work outside Amazon?

Partially. Google Shopping shows price history for many products, and Idealo covers European retail well. For the rest, the manual method works: screenshot the price the first time you consider an item. Three weeks before Black Friday is plenty of time to build your own baseline.

So is the sale price really lower? Sometimes — but the tag won't tell you. The price history will. Build your watchlist this week, screenshot today's prices, and when 27 November arrives you'll be the shopper the "fool price" clip can't fool.